An Exercise In Soft Power: What The Beijing Olympics Really Mean To China

Within China, images of the coming 2008 Olympic Summer Games in Beijing have been absolutely pervasive for several years. Since 2004, when a 14-meter countdown-clock was planted in Tian'anmen Square to date, the presence, image and promotion of the Beijing Games has grown through every part of Chinese public life. In Shanghai, replicas of the Olympic torch serve as lamp-posts lining major boulevards, the five bobble headed "friendlies" greet you on virtually every spare public placard, a plethora of commemorative items are sold in gift shops, sponsorships have been sold for every conceivable product, and events are staged to lardmark even seemingly insignificant occasions.

To the average Chinese citizen, the Olympics has been billed as far more than sport, but is recognized as China's so-called "national coming-out party" and viewed as an immensely important event, signifying China's rise, prestige in the world, and perhaps a means of shedding the national sense of "humiliation" that is common in Chinese public discourse and education. In economic terms, the cost of the 17-day event has been frequently estimated around US$40 billion, which probably does not account for the disruptions in economic activity (temporarily shutting-down factories, power plants, limiting traffic to improve air quality, air-quality monitoring, etc.) or the elaborate and occassionally comical security efforts to ensure the games are secure from "anti-China" elements. No chances are being taken and no expense is being spared to ensure the success of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad.

This why I was recently baffled by the second paragraph of April Rabkin's otherwise righteous New York Times editorial piece China's Inside Game wherein she claims,

"What the (International Olympic Committee) and the rest of the world don’t realize is how little China cares what they think. Here in Beijing, the Olympic Games are primarily for domestic consumption, justifying the government’s new global power to its own people."

and then concludes the article in somewhat contradictory terms by reiterating Beijing's claim to the largest-ever viewing audience in language that suggests that international opinion is part of the the so-called "mandate of heaven."

"This August a few world leaders may boycott the opening ceremony. But the Games will go forward and be televised to what China will most likely declare is the largest worldwide audience ever. The Chinese government will have pulled off a modern Olympics — as close to a mandate from heaven as could be imagined by any dynasty of any era."

As an aside — in regard to the size of the audience, I suspect that Beijing's estimate is quite correct as more people have (Chinese-made) televisions, satellite and internet connections than ever before, and with about 20% of the world's eyeballs — heavily primed ones at that — on their turf, one wonders how many Chinese TV channels will be dedicated to the Olympics. Given that all channels were allocated to coverage of the recent earthquake in Sichuan Province, presumably a good number of the 40 or so standard television channels will carry the games.

While the Chinese audience has been preparing for the games for years, the rest of the world will also be watching with great interest, and the Chinese government and its sophisticated propagandists are keenly aware of this. In fact, Beijing estimates that the games will have about 4 billion viewers worldwide, the broadcast rights to which were sold for around US$1.7 billion. Additionally, foreign attendance in the various cities with Olympic venues is large enough that the Chinese government broadcasting public service messages on proper proper etiquette (which is a serious problem in China) and verse taxi drivers and other public service personel in basic spoken English.

The truth is that China does care a great deal about what impressions foreigners gain from the Olympics, and it is eager to ensure that they receive the proper messages. This point of view was positively asserted in an interview with Susan Shirk (author of the recently acclaimed book China: Fragile Superpower: How China's Internal Politics Could Derail Its Peaceful Rise) at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum:

"You know, China wants to believe that it can rise peacefully, China's leaders want to believe they can rise peacefully, without provoking a conflict with the United States. But if, every time they do something they feel that they are the target of criticism, it breeds all sorts of suspicions that the United States, and Americans, will never accept China as a legitimate player in the world. Let us remember, the United States Congress had votes to deny the Olympics to China when it was competing for the 1994 Olympics because of its human rights record, and it did not get those Olympics. So getting the nod to host the 2008 Olympics was huge for China as a kind of respect and legitimacy. You know, China is more concerned about its international reputation than any country I can think of in the world, because of this kind of insecurity." (emphasis added)

So in August, with roughly 4 billion viewers tuning their sets to the games, the images and stories that are broadcast are very much part of Beijing's calculus in creating a successful games. For as it stands, outsiders still know very little of China, and without first-hand experience, one's preconceived notions are inevitably way-off, as anyone who has spent time there will tell you.

Thus, in China, under of government so deeply concerned with image, information, and ultimately mind-control, the large foreign audience presents a highly impressionable target, which it will attempt to bedazzle with it's futuristic venues, material wealth, technical prowess, organizational competence, and human performance. These narratives will be artfully presented through the media to project the power of Chinese state, the richness of Chinese culture, and the greatness of its people, ideas which Beijing hopes will take root in the minds of the viewership. In effect, it is to be the most broad-based propaganda effort in world history, and more directly, an attempt to plant the "official version of China" into as many minds as possible. It is, in a nutshell, a great psychological power play, an exercise in "soft power."

Of course, this is not to deny the realities of the progress that has taken place in China since its opening to the world about 30 years ago. However, it does expose the extraordinary disingenuousness of China's insistence that the game not be politicized. Although it is technically a sporting competition, the Olympics is also a contest among nations, which is inherently political. What events other than direct armed conflict could inspire greater mass nationalism than head-to-head competition between national teams? Of course, China is very much aware of this, and is making every effort to take advantage of the opportunity, which it hopes will translate into greater power and prestige for it's government, corporations, and citizens, while it tries to keep a lid on any elements that undermine this ambition. The public presentation of these 17-days are in fact the great drama of the 2008 Summer Olympics: the competing agendas of the official version, versus attempts by various disaffected, dispossessed and oppressed groups to disrupt the games and claim attention, and the reality of China, which lies somewhere in between.

Through the course of the Olympic torch-relay, the public display has been something of a PR disaster for China, as protest groups were effective in gaining attention or at least tarnishing China's image, as the recent Pew Global Attitudes Project reveals:

"Overall the current survey, which was conducted at a time when China was coming under harsh criticism for its crackdown on political dissent in Tibet, once again finds favorable ratings of China slipping in many countries. Positive views fell significantly in nine of 21 countries in which polls were taken in 2007, as well as in the current survey. Opinions of China tumbled the most in France (47% to 28%) and in Japan (29% to 14%). Favorable ratings of China are highest in Nigeria, Pakistan, Tanzania and Russia"

Inevitably, the unfolding those 17-days in August will be historic. Some businesses will reap a windfall from the games, as many have already in the build-up to the events. During the games, China will have the world's attention and an unprecedented opportunity to shine, and in all likelihood, after years of intensive development, China's teams will win the overall medal count. However, the way in which the Beijing Olympics is presented to world and the public perceptions and attitudes that it creates will determine the longer-term ramifications for China, and therein lie the real stakes.